here are my plays:
Dawn of the Dead over 20.5 million. -160/-170 9 units to win 5.5
also: over 25 million +230 1 unit
this one has similar buzz to Starsky and Hutch. Its actually doing a lot better on the buzz chart, which is a very good sign. With 28 points, compared to Starsky's high-teens buzz score, I think it could be good for maybe a hair over 25 million with the R rating thrown in the mix. Realistically 22-24 millions is where I think it might end up. It also has very similar message board traffic to Starsky and has done a bit better on the moviefone chart, even though it's still only #2 today behind Secret Window, it debuted on the chart around #5 I think on Tuesday which is very good, and did well yesterday also. The #2 ranking is troubling however, even though it will climb to #1 eventually some time today. Also, The Texas Chainsaw Massacre, which made 28 million, had an unusually large buzz score, which topped 100 on its opening Saturday. Still, I feel strongly that Dawn of the Dead will clear 20.5 and possibly but not likely top 25.
4-4 +1.85 units
Dawn of the Dead over 20.5 million. -160/-170 9 units to win 5.5
also: over 25 million +230 1 unit
this one has similar buzz to Starsky and Hutch. Its actually doing a lot better on the buzz chart, which is a very good sign. With 28 points, compared to Starsky's high-teens buzz score, I think it could be good for maybe a hair over 25 million with the R rating thrown in the mix. Realistically 22-24 millions is where I think it might end up. It also has very similar message board traffic to Starsky and has done a bit better on the moviefone chart, even though it's still only #2 today behind Secret Window, it debuted on the chart around #5 I think on Tuesday which is very good, and did well yesterday also. The #2 ranking is troubling however, even though it will climb to #1 eventually some time today. Also, The Texas Chainsaw Massacre, which made 28 million, had an unusually large buzz score, which topped 100 on its opening Saturday. Still, I feel strongly that Dawn of the Dead will clear 20.5 and possibly but not likely top 25.
4-4 +1.85 units
Taking Lives... Roger Ebert gave it two thumbs UP. Big stars with Agelino Jolie and Ethan Hawk and Sutherland. I think I like the 13 million or more for +230 at Intertops also.
Dawn Of The Dead is getting great reviews. Lots of Buzz. I took 25 million or more as soon as it opened for +230. I have to disagree with you Oren about it not going over 25 million... Texas Chainsaw is an ax murdering gore type of movie... where Dawn Of The Dead has gore, plus the Virus making humans go crazy and eat other humans theme. It's a cross between 28 Days Later/Texas Chainsaw. I think the film will bring out both audiences. 25 million or more is a great value play, IMO.
Dawn Of The Dead is getting great reviews. Lots of Buzz. I took 25 million or more as soon as it opened for +230. I have to disagree with you Oren about it not going over 25 million... Texas Chainsaw is an ax murdering gore type of movie... where Dawn Of The Dead has gore, plus the Virus making humans go crazy and eat other humans theme. It's a cross between 28 Days Later/Texas Chainsaw. I think the film will bring out both audiences. 25 million or more is a great value play, IMO.
KO, you might be right. here's a sneak preview theater report:
And if this screening is any indication, this remake's gonna be a monster ****in hit. I got there an hour early and the line was clear around the block. And then everybody cheered all through the movie, at the end, and after the credits. I actually didn't hear anybody saying it was bad (and alot of people were a little TOO excited about it). Of course, it was a pretty rabid crowd. You should've seen these kids from the local top 40 station trying to ask trivia questions... about their station! There were 500 people yelling "What does this have to do with zombies?" and even "BRAINS!" (wrong movie, right food). I thought these intern kids were gonna run out the emergency exit and take off in the party van.
the over 21 -150 at WSEX now is a no-brainer IMO.
And if this screening is any indication, this remake's gonna be a monster ****in hit. I got there an hour early and the line was clear around the block. And then everybody cheered all through the movie, at the end, and after the credits. I actually didn't hear anybody saying it was bad (and alot of people were a little TOO excited about it). Of course, it was a pretty rabid crowd. You should've seen these kids from the local top 40 station trying to ask trivia questions... about their station! There were 500 people yelling "What does this have to do with zombies?" and even "BRAINS!" (wrong movie, right food). I thought these intern kids were gonna run out the emergency exit and take off in the party van.
the over 21 -150 at WSEX now is a no-brainer IMO.
O.K. Taking Lives. It's going up against Dawn of the Dead, Jim Carrey's new movie, Secret Window's second week, not to mention Starsky and Hutch and Passion which are still doing good as well. It's #9 on moviefone right now, and still has time to gain a respectable spot.... I should wait to see what it ends up tonight but my feeling is this one has a good chance to bomb. For one, I've never seen the trailer on t.v. or in the theaters. Not a good public awareness. And the trailer isn't very good anyways, it's just another generic serial killer pain-by-numbers movie. Also, it's getting very bad reviews. But, Twisted got bad reviews and that was a generic thriller paint-by-numbers and got 9 million or so. This one has similar star-power to Twisted, but, Twisted had better advertising and less competition. This one could go the way of Summer of Sam (6 million, 1500 theaters) or Fear Dot Com (5.7 million 2500 theaters.) Maybe it does 8 or 9, but I think it could fall below 7.5. Jolie's last movie, which was a complete failure in every way, and got even worse reviews than this one, Beyond Borders, made 2 million in 1800 theaters.
7.5 or less +450 1 unit
[This message was edited by Oren1 on March 18, 2004 at 10:09 PM.]
7.5 or less +450 1 unit
[This message was edited by Oren1 on March 18, 2004 at 10:09 PM.]
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by whormoan:
Taking Lives 13 mil or more (+225 at intertops) seems very possible considering 2700+ screens and jolie<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
There is a chance it could hit 13 now whormoan.
Taking Lives has shot all the way up to #3... past Jim Carrey's movie which some people think can pull in 9/10 million. So Taking Lives will do better than that for sure. Jolie does well in movies like this... just see Bone Collector. Good concept... i ended up taking 11 - 12.9 m for +135... but I'm going to lay some money on 13 million or more for +250. That's some good value, IMO. 13 million with 2700 theaters and star power isn't too much to ask, not with +250 behind it. (I made money tonight on boxing, so I'll bet some of my winnings on +250.)
Good Luck!!!
Taking Lives 13 mil or more (+225 at intertops) seems very possible considering 2700+ screens and jolie<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
There is a chance it could hit 13 now whormoan.
Taking Lives has shot all the way up to #3... past Jim Carrey's movie which some people think can pull in 9/10 million. So Taking Lives will do better than that for sure. Jolie does well in movies like this... just see Bone Collector. Good concept... i ended up taking 11 - 12.9 m for +135... but I'm going to lay some money on 13 million or more for +250. That's some good value, IMO. 13 million with 2700 theaters and star power isn't too much to ask, not with +250 behind it. (I made money tonight on boxing, so I'll bet some of my winnings on +250.)
Good Luck!!!
I read this article on HOLLYWOOD REPORTER:
"Dawn of the Dead" could lose some thrill-seekers to Warner Bros. Pictures' "Taking Lives." A more upscale thriller directed by D.J. Caruso ("The Salton Sea"), the atmospheric R-rated tale stars Angelina Jolie (news) as an FBI (news - web sites) profiler working a serial killer case in Montreal. Sporting a cast that includes Ethan Hawke (news), Olivier Martinez (news) and Kiefer Sutherland (news), the film is likely to attract a somewhat less rabid and probably more female first-weekend audience than "Dawn," and so it could find itself checking in with a number somewhere in the low-teen millions as it debuts in 2,705 locations.
(points to ponder)
"Dawn of the Dead" could lose some thrill-seekers to Warner Bros. Pictures' "Taking Lives." A more upscale thriller directed by D.J. Caruso ("The Salton Sea"), the atmospheric R-rated tale stars Angelina Jolie (news) as an FBI (news - web sites) profiler working a serial killer case in Montreal. Sporting a cast that includes Ethan Hawke (news), Olivier Martinez (news) and Kiefer Sutherland (news), the film is likely to attract a somewhat less rabid and probably more female first-weekend audience than "Dawn," and so it could find itself checking in with a number somewhere in the low-teen millions as it debuts in 2,705 locations.
(points to ponder)
By DAVID GERMAIN
AP Movie Writer
LOS ANGELES (AP) -- Audiences feasted on zombies as the fright flick "Dawn of the Dead" ruled the box office, debuting with $27.3 million and bumping "The Passion of the Christ" from the top spot.
Mel Gibson's "The Passion" took in $19.2 million, slipping to second place after three straight weekends on top, according to studio estimates Sunday.
"The Passion" raised its domestic total to $295.3 million since opening Feb. 25. The movie passed "The Sixth Sense," which earned $293.5 million, to take over 18th place on the all-time domestic chart.
Opening in third place with $11.4 million was the serial-killer thriller "Taking Lives," starring Angelina Jolie and Ethan Hawke in a tale of an FBI profiler tracking a murderer who assumes victims' identities.
In narrower release, Jim Carrey's "Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind" premiered at No. 6 with $8.6 million. Carrey plays a man reliving recollections of a soured romance after he hires a company to erase his memories of his lover, played by Kate Winslet.
The overall box office rose for the fourth straight weekend, with the top 12 movies grossing $109.7 million, up 33 percent from the same weekend a year ago.
Much of that lift is due to "The Passion," which pulled Hollywood out of an early-year slump.
"We anticipated it would open well and contribute to the total box office, but certainly not at this magnitude," said Rob Schwartz, head of distribution for Newmarket Films, which released "The Passion."
Hollywood revenues for the year are at about $1.8 billion, 3 to 4 percent ahead of last year's, said Paul Dergarabedian, president of box-office tracker Exhibitor Relations.
"Dawn of the Dead" stars Sarah Polley and Ving Rhames in a remake of George Romero's 1979 horror tale about survivors holed up in a shopping mall from a plague of flesh-eating zombies.
Opening in 2,745 theaters, "Dawn of the Dead" averaged a healthy $9,945 a cinema. "Taking Lives" averaged $4,218 in 2,705 theaters, while "Eternal Sunshine" did $6,334 in 1,353 cinemas.
Remakes have a spotty box-office history, though horror updates such as last year's hit "The Texas Chainsaw Massacre" tend to hold less risk because scary movies have a built-in audience.
"They are dicey," said Nikki Rocco, head of distribution for Universal, which released "Dawn of the Dead." "But I think the horror genre, that's a genre that's an audience pleaser. Clearly, everyone's going because they want to see the zombies."
Scary movies tend to drop steeply in subsequent weekends after hardcore horror fans have seen them. But "Dawn of the Dead" cost just $26 million to make, so surpassing its production budget with the opening weekend gross puts it on track to turn a solid profit.
Estimated ticket sales for Friday through Sunday at North American theaters, according to Exhibitor Relations Co. Inc. Final figures will be released Monday.
1. "Dawn of the Dead," $27.3 million.
2. "The Passion of the Christ," $19.2 million.
3. "Taking Lives," $11.4 million.
4. "Starsky & Hutch," $10.7 million.
5. "Secret Window," $9.6 million.
6. "Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind," $8.6 million.
7. "Hidalgo," $8.5 million.
8. "Agent Cody Banks: Destination London," $6 million.
9. "50 First Dates," $4.3 million.
10. "Confessions of a Teenage Drama Queen," $1.5 million.
AP Movie Writer
LOS ANGELES (AP) -- Audiences feasted on zombies as the fright flick "Dawn of the Dead" ruled the box office, debuting with $27.3 million and bumping "The Passion of the Christ" from the top spot.
Mel Gibson's "The Passion" took in $19.2 million, slipping to second place after three straight weekends on top, according to studio estimates Sunday.
"The Passion" raised its domestic total to $295.3 million since opening Feb. 25. The movie passed "The Sixth Sense," which earned $293.5 million, to take over 18th place on the all-time domestic chart.
Opening in third place with $11.4 million was the serial-killer thriller "Taking Lives," starring Angelina Jolie and Ethan Hawke in a tale of an FBI profiler tracking a murderer who assumes victims' identities.
In narrower release, Jim Carrey's "Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind" premiered at No. 6 with $8.6 million. Carrey plays a man reliving recollections of a soured romance after he hires a company to erase his memories of his lover, played by Kate Winslet.
The overall box office rose for the fourth straight weekend, with the top 12 movies grossing $109.7 million, up 33 percent from the same weekend a year ago.
Much of that lift is due to "The Passion," which pulled Hollywood out of an early-year slump.
"We anticipated it would open well and contribute to the total box office, but certainly not at this magnitude," said Rob Schwartz, head of distribution for Newmarket Films, which released "The Passion."
Hollywood revenues for the year are at about $1.8 billion, 3 to 4 percent ahead of last year's, said Paul Dergarabedian, president of box-office tracker Exhibitor Relations.
"Dawn of the Dead" stars Sarah Polley and Ving Rhames in a remake of George Romero's 1979 horror tale about survivors holed up in a shopping mall from a plague of flesh-eating zombies.
Opening in 2,745 theaters, "Dawn of the Dead" averaged a healthy $9,945 a cinema. "Taking Lives" averaged $4,218 in 2,705 theaters, while "Eternal Sunshine" did $6,334 in 1,353 cinemas.
Remakes have a spotty box-office history, though horror updates such as last year's hit "The Texas Chainsaw Massacre" tend to hold less risk because scary movies have a built-in audience.
"They are dicey," said Nikki Rocco, head of distribution for Universal, which released "Dawn of the Dead." "But I think the horror genre, that's a genre that's an audience pleaser. Clearly, everyone's going because they want to see the zombies."
Scary movies tend to drop steeply in subsequent weekends after hardcore horror fans have seen them. But "Dawn of the Dead" cost just $26 million to make, so surpassing its production budget with the opening weekend gross puts it on track to turn a solid profit.
Estimated ticket sales for Friday through Sunday at North American theaters, according to Exhibitor Relations Co. Inc. Final figures will be released Monday.
1. "Dawn of the Dead," $27.3 million.
2. "The Passion of the Christ," $19.2 million.
3. "Taking Lives," $11.4 million.
4. "Starsky & Hutch," $10.7 million.
5. "Secret Window," $9.6 million.
6. "Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind," $8.6 million.
7. "Hidalgo," $8.5 million.
8. "Agent Cody Banks: Destination London," $6 million.
9. "50 First Dates," $4.3 million.
10. "Confessions of a Teenage Drama Queen," $1.5 million.
